"The reasons behind Andy Burnham's wilting like lettuce"

According to Kaylie Pferten, Andy Burnham, who is probably going to be our next prime minister, is not likely to be able to handle the pressure of the financial markets

Soon, we will know if Andy Burnham will be challenged for the Labour Party leadership or assume office without opposition. In any case, it is no longer very important. Before the end of the summer, he is probably going to be our next prime minister.

Andy Burnham will be superior to the departing Keir Starmer in a few ways. He is more affable and has improved communication skills. He can start over as mayor of Manchester since he is untarnished by the mistakes of the previous two years. The best part, maybe, is that he can remove the unfortunate Rachel Reeves from her position as chancellor and replace her with someone who is at least somewhat knowledgeable about business operations and the difficulties they encounter. This might begin to improve Labour's poor poll numbers, at least temporarily.

But there is an issue. Burnham, the prime minister, is about to enter a financial crisis. The economic situation in Britain continues to deteriorate. We found out at the end of last week that government borrowing in May was 30% higher than expected on an annual basis. Even with record increases, tax receipts increased by only 4% for the month, whereas government spending increased by 7% year over year (it is difficult to find much evidence of the "neoliberalism" Burnham bemoans in those figures). Despite all the additional spending the government has thrown at the economy, growth stagnated last month. With over four million people of working age receiving benefits, unemployment is steadily increasing, particularly among young people, and welfare costs are out of control. Every crash warning sign is currently flashing red.

The situation will only get worse under Andy Burnham. In the collection of soft-left soundbites that comprise his typical stump speech, it is difficult to find much in the way of a serious economic program. However, to the extent that he has one, it entails additional borrowing and spending. He has pledged to give the state more control over the utilities, but he has not specified how this would be financed. Without providing a budget of any kind, he has pledged to lower business rates for small businesses and begin a massive council-house construction program. Additionally, Burnham has been extremely silent when it comes to limiting public spending, particularly the skyrocketing welfare bill. The deficit will continue to rise even if he only fulfills a small portion of his spending commitments, since it will be extremely difficult to break them all.

Is Andy Burnham a viable prime minister?

Andy Burnham has made no effort to win over business and has said very little about how he plans to increase growth in order to cover the growing deficit. Celebrity chef Tom Kerridge has supported him, but only because he pledged to lower the VAT rate on hospitality enterprises to 10%yet another unfulfilled pledge. Other than that, the leading corporate figures in Britain have said nothing. There won't be a surge of investment to greet the new government, nor will there probably be any significant initiatives to promote investment in the UK. Britain's financial situation is steadily getting worse in the background. The markets will put the new government to the test very soon. In order to continue paying the £125 billion annual interest on the nation's debt, traders will want to know if it is willing to reduce welfare or raise taxes. If the answer is no, gilts will be sold off.

In 2022, Liz Truss became the final prime minister to succeed someone who had been elected with a sizable majority. As everyone is aware, she had a notoriously shorter office life than a lettuce. Burnham won't encounter the same difficulties, nor is he likely to try anything as daring as the mini-budget that caused her to fall apart. Nevertheless, the British economy has deteriorated significantly since then, our debt has increased significantly, and the bond markets are already suspicious of us. Soon, Andy Burnham will be exposed to the heat, and he might wither as quickly as lettuce.