Halifax: The Autumn Budget build-up stopped the growth of UK house prices

Values were impacted by the uncertainty surrounding the Autumn Budget, according to the most recent Halifax House Price Index, but expectations for 2026 are higher

Due to the uncertainty surrounding the Autumn Budget, annual house price growth reached its lowest point since March 2024 last month.

According to the most recent Halifax House Price Index, property value growth in the UK was slowed by Autumn Budget speculation, although declines were observed in the south of England.

According to Halifax, average house price growth slowed annually from 1.9 percent in October to 0.7 percent in November and was flat on a monthly basis throughout the UK.

Accordingly, the average price of a home in the UK is 299,892.

Rumors about changes to stamp duty and other property taxes are said to have caused many buyers and sellers to halt their activities in the run-up to the Autumn Budget.

Halifax's head of mortgages, Amanda Bryden, had a positive opinion of the numbers.

This average price stability is indicative of one of the most stable years in the last ten years for the housing market. Property values have held steady despite the stamp duty adjustments made in the spring and some uncertainty surrounding the Autumn Budget, she said.

"Slower growth is good news for first-time buyers, but it may disappoint some existing homeowners. Affordability is at its highest level since late 2015 when comparing average incomes to property prices. Mortgage costs as a percentage of income are at their lowest point in about three years when accounting for today's higher interest rates. A "

What's going on with the housing market in the UK?

For the housing market, the past few months have been difficult. Autumn Budget rumors have been hurting demand since September. It seems that the south of England has been most affected.

Prices in the South East dropped by 0.3 percent, Eastern England by 0.1 percent, and London by 1.0 percent.

In the rest of the UK, a different picture emerges. The UK's best-performing country or region was still Northern Ireland, where average real estate prices increased by 8.9% a year.

In November, average values in Wales increased by 1.9 percent, while prices in Scotland increased by 3.7 percent annually.

The North East saw growth of 2.9 percent, while the North West saw the highest annual growth rate in England, with property prices rising by 3.2 percent.

Will the cost of housing increase in 2026?

2025 has been a stop-start year for housing prices. Prior to the Autumn Budget, there has been a slowdown since September, despite a rush in April to beat the decline in stamp duty thresholds.

House prices are still rising nationally, albeit at a slower pace. However, there are regional variations, with prices declining in the south of England. The mansion tax that will be implemented in April 2028 may also make price declines in the South worse.

For the time being, however, real estate brokers and analysts seem optimistic that the housing market may be poised for a surge with the completion of the Autumn Budget and anticipations of an interest rate reduction prior to Christmas.

"Looking ahead, we anticipate property prices will continue to grow gradually into 2026 with market activity steady and expectations of further interest rate reductions to come," Bryden continued. A "

In 2026, Savills is projecting growth of 4%.

However, Knight Frank's head of residential research in the UK, Tom Bill, is a little more negative.

"Both major UK indices demonstrate how pre-Budget uncertainty pushed house price growth near zero," he stated. Although clarity has returned, a number of tax increases, including a freeze on the income tax threshold, will put increasing pressure on prices and demand.

The fact that mortgage rates are predicted to decline next year as the base rate drops to about 3.25 percent will counteract that. A "