If the triple lock on state pensions were eliminated, 26 million British citizens would be at risk of experiencing a retirement shortfall

According to current estimates of pensioner poverty, the state pension triple lock will remain in effect for the next fifty years

This is unlikely, according to critics, and updated data that reveals millions more people's pension undersavings paint a more accurate picture of the situation.

According to new data, eliminating the state pension triple lock would significantly lower the standard of living for millions more British citizens upon retirement. There may be as many as 26.1 million people who are experiencing a severe shortfall.

The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) estimates that 14.6 million working-age individuals in the UK are already under-saving for retirement, which means they can anticipate a significant decline in the lifestyle they can afford before and after work.

However, this commonly used estimate is predicated on the state pension triple lock, in which the state pension increases annually by the greater of inflation, wage growth, or 2.5 percent for the next 50 years.

The foundation of many current retirees' retirement income is the state pension, which is currently 11,973 (or 230.25 per week for those receiving the full new state pension). Critics contend that the triple lock system should be replaced with a double lock system that only increases in response to inflation or wage growth because it is too expensive.

The potential effects of removing the triple lock have now been shown by new data from a Freedom of Information request to the DWP.

Compared to the official figures of 14.6 million under-saving (43 percent of working-age individuals), this would increase to 19 million (56 percent) with an earnings link and up to 26.1 million (77 percent) with an inflation link on the state pension.

The FOI also provided statistics on the number of people who would not receive even Pensions UK's minimum retirement income standard, which is currently 13,400 annually for an individual.

This increases from 4.6 million under the triple lock to 6 million under an earnings link and up to 11.7 million under an inflation linkroughly one in three modern workers.

"These startling figures reveal that the true state of under-saving for retirement in Britain is far greater than has previously been admitted," stated Steve Webb, a former pensions minister and current partner at pension consultancy LCP, who obtained the data via the FOI.

Although very few people anticipate that the triple lock will last for an additional fifty years, the government has published estimates based on this assumption thus far. Millions more people would experience a significant decline in their standard of living upon retirement if an earnings link were to replace the triple lock.

And if prices were linked, as was the case until 2010, about one-third of today's workers would not be able to retire with even the most basic standard of living. A "

In retirement, how much do you need?

The FOI from the Department for Work and Pensions offers three estimates of what people may require in retirement.

First. According to this benchmark, the lowest earners must replace 80% of their post-retirement income, the highest earners must replace 50%, and the median earner should be able to replace roughly 67% of their pre-retirement income when they retire.

Two. Pensions UK (formerly the PLSA) set a minimum benchmark of 13,400 for a single person's very basic retirement.

Three. For a middling retirement, Pensions UK established a moderate benchmark of 31,700 annually.

DWP's estimates of the number of people who are undersaving in comparison to these benchmarks are displayed in the table below. The figure in the first row, which was released in July 2025, is predicated on an endless triple lock.

Based on the FOI, rows two and three display what the numbers would be if the pension were instead based on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) or average earnings.