The state pension triple lock boost will be lost for millions of retirees

More than 65 million pensioners will not receive the full triple lock; instead, they will only see a portion of their payments rise in April

According to new data, millions of retirees may lose out on a 46% increase if they do not receive the benefits of the state pension triple lock in April.

Every year, the triple lock guarantees that the state pension will increase by the greater of two to five percent, inflation, or wage growth.

The triple lock guarantee does not, however, apply to all state pension payments made.

Millions of older pensioners receive the basic state pension; however, the majority also receive the state second pension, also known as Serps, which is an additional earnings-related pension that is not covered by the government's triple lock.

An estimated 6,574,000 pensioners are expected to receive the state second pension in 2026 - 2027, according to government statistics. Instead of being increased by the triple lock, this payment only rises in accordance with inflation.

On the other hand, the triple lock safeguards basic state pension and new state pension payments.

The most recent data indicates that wage growth is outpacing inflation at 4.6 percent. The full new state pension would increase by 551 to 12,524 annually if the 4 percent figure was applied in the triple lock next April. The yearly income of those receiving the basic state pension would increase to 9,634.

The fact that the various components of one's state pension can increase at varying rates frequently surprises people, says Steve Webb, a former pensions minister and partner at pension consultants LCP.

"The well-known triple lock promise only applies to the new flat rate pension and the previous basic state pension; it does not apply to other pension components like the state second pension, also referred to as Serps.

Learn more about the people who will not be eligible for the triple lock on the state pension.

By next year, how much will the state pension increase?

The government typically confirms the precise amount in its Autumn Budget, but the annual triple lock rise is only known in October for the following April.

The triple lock's inflation figure pertains to the previous September, whereas the average wage growth data covers the period from May to July. These two figures have not yet been released.

The triple lock may increase in tandem with wage growth if it remains higher than inflation, as wage growth is currently at 4 percent and inflation is at 3 percent.

Older pensioners who receive the state second pension are likely to receive only about 80% of the triple lock uplift for that portion of their pension if inflation stays at 3 to 8%.

The triple-locked components of the pension will increase marginally more than other components in a year when wages grow more quickly than prices, according to Webb.

The head of retirement analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown, Helen Morrissey, predicts that a state pension triple lock increase will occur "somewhere in the 4-4.5 percent ballpark for next year."

This would result in an annual increase in benefits for someone receiving a new state pension of approximately 479 to 538. A person receiving a full basic state pension would see an increase in their benefits from 367 to 413.

This magnitude of an increase would be comparable to the triple lock uplift that occurred in April 2025, when the state pension increased by 4 points.

That being said, it is far less than what we have witnessed in recent years, when the state pension skyrocketed by 8 percent in April 2024 and a staggering 10 percent the year before.

"State pensions have been growing at a rate that some experts believe is unsustainable in the long term due to the extremely high levels of inflation the UK has experienced since 2020," says Derence Lee, chief finance officer at Shepherds Friendly.

In the coming year or two, he continues, the new full state pension is probably going to surpass the tax-free personal allowance of £12,570, which will force more retirees into the tax-paying bracket.

The state pension triple lock is advantageous to whom?

6936,000 pensioners currently receive the state second pension, which increases in line with inflation rather than the triple lock.

According to government projections, this number will drop to 6,574,000 in April 2026. This results from the annual death of older pensioners, which lowers the number of people receiving the basic state pension (and consequently the state second pension as well).

There were roughly 10 million pensioners receiving the state second pension ten years ago.

For those who postpone their state pension, the triple lock on the additional amount they receive for deferring is also not available.

If, on or after April 6, 2016, you reached or will reach state pension age, the state pension will increase by 5 percent for each full year you postpone taking it.

After that, this additional sum rises annually in accordance with CPI inflation instead of the triple lock.

The triple lock does not include an increase in state pensions for British pensioners residing overseas in nations such as Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand, and South Africa.

About 450,000 pensioners are impacted by the "frozen state pension" policy, which means that foreigners in some nations do not receive any increase in their UK state pension at all.