Market forecasts for 2026: Will an income tax be implemented in Dubai?

In his predictions for 2026, James Mackreides discusses everything from a supermarket merger to the introduction of an income tax in Dubai and Britain's return to the 1970s

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First.

A surge in IPOs. Artificial Intelligence.

Over the previous two decades, the number of listed companies has steadily decreased. The number of stocks in London has decreased from 2,448 in 2013 to 1,800. From a peak of 7,000 in the 1990s to about 4,000 today, the numbers in New York have decreased, and most of the major exchanges have seen comparable drops. However, some huge initial public offerings (IPOs) will occur in 2026. SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are all probably worth at least £500 billion. Investors will have a great desire for new issues after that. Both entrepreneurs who have businesses to sell and private equity firms with a large number of companies on their books that they would like to sell off will be quick to seize the opportunity. The outcome was a boom in IPOs.

Two. German corporations relocate to China.

Beijing is home to the Volkswagen Group China headquarters building.

Many large European companies have already relocated to the United States. But surely the second-biggest economy in the world has its draws as well? China has deep capital markets, hundreds of millions of increasingly affluent consumers, and an annual growth rate of more than 5 percent. China already has a significant influence on many of Germany's largest corporations. It accounts for about 30% of Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen sales. Many of the titans of engineering and chemistry are equally reliant. Businesses may have to choose between the West and China due to the increasing trade barriers. Based on the numbers, China might be a better option. Compromising with the Beijing regime would be necessary, but it might make far more sense from a business standpoint than solely depending on dwindling domestic sales.

Three.

Morrisons and Asda combine. logos from the top supermarkets in the UK.

In the early 2020s, it was puzzling that private equity firms were determined to purchase second-tier British supermarket chains. After a few years, one thing is evident. It hasn't gone well. Following a 6.8 billion dollar acquisition in 2020, TDR Capital now owns the majority of Asda, but the chain has had difficulty holding onto market share ever since. Following a £7 billion acquisition in 2021, Morrisons is now owned by Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, and it has also underperformed ever since. The grocery market in the UK is now extremely harsh. The mass market is dominated by an incredibly efficient Tesco, a wealthy niche is controlled by Waitrose and Marks & Spencer, and the cheaper end of the market is dominated by German discount stores Aldi and Lidl. Concurrently, the government continues to impose additional expenses and obligations. Even worse, sales are hardly healthy due to a stagnant economy and constantly rising taxes. If the buy-out companies are to have any chance of receiving their money back, there is only one practical solution. Combine the two businesses to start reducing expenses and establish a new chain with about 20% of the market.

#4.

Income tax is introduced in Dubai. Bahrain.

People may be relocating there for the sun and lifestyle, a better job, or to launch a business. However, the tens of thousands of people who move to Dubai each year are also lowering their tax obligations. However, it turns out that managing a state with negligible taxes is more difficult than it appears. As it expands, the indigenous population demands more generous welfare while debts must be paid off and infrastructure must be funded. There is already a small corporate tax in the UAE. My prediction is that the first income tax will be implemented in 2026. It will likely only be applied to incomes over £100,000 and will initially be minimalperhaps 5%. British expatriates are still in for a surprise.

Five.

Great British Automobiles' ascent. The steering wheel of a Dogood Motors Zero fully electric Micro-EV vehicle featuring the British Union Jack flag.

Great British Railways and Great British Energy already exist, and the state now owns half of the steel sector. Since the 1970s, our government has been more enthusiastic about nationalization than any of its predecessors. The only significant change is that the word "Great" is now included in the branding, most likely because we might not have noticed how "great" the companies are otherwise. In the meantime, the auto industry is in serious trouble. It has the highest energy prices in the world, and the UK is, at least for the time being, adhering to the ridiculous goal of outlawing new gasoline-powered vehicles starting in 2030, even though this goal is being pushed back elsewhere. The government must intervene to save the manufacturers before they go out of business. Greetings from Great British Vehicles, a state-owned company that produces electric vehicles that are extremely expensive, useless, and unpopular. It will complete Britain's journey back to the 1970s.