Investment Advice

An overpriced flying-car company is Archer Aviation

An overpriced flying-car company is Archer Aviation
Archer Aviation, a flying car company, is losing money and its plans have not yet taken off

What actions should investors take?

The company Archer Aviation (Nasdaq: ACHR) specializes in cutting-edge aircraft, specifically those that fall under the eVTOL (electrical vertical take-off and landing) category. Compared to helicopters, these light aircraft are far more economical, ecologically friendly, and capable of taking off and landing without the need for a runway. By doing this, they would be able to solve two of the main issues with helicopters: cost and noise.

Other tech firms, like Anthropic and SpaceX, have listed on the stock exchange with valuations of hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars. The excitement surrounding technology stocks is extremely high. The market has already begun to turn against some tech companies with audacious plans for the future, though, and this should not be hidden by the rise of these well-known names. An example of this is Archer Aviation.

Archer Aviation is interested in creating flying taxis.

For trips that are too short for airplanes, Archer believes that eVTOL aircraft could help people avoid clogged urban streets and highways, especially in the United States. Some claim that for people who want more speed and convenience but cannot afford to charter a traditional aircraft, using these "flying cars" could even turn into the equivalent of calling a cab. Bridging the gap between hype and reality is proving to be a significant challenge, though, just like with any visually appealing technology.

For instance, it will still take several years to get the aircraft approved for use in US airspace, despite efforts by the US government to expedite the regulatory process. In order to persuade consumers to purchase them, Archer Aviation must next figure out how to produce them in large quantities and at a fair price. Despite a few successful test flights, all the evidence points to Archer Aviation being far from finishing any of those steps, especially when compared to competitors like Beta Technologies. The safe integration of eVTOLs into airspace utilized by aircraft, helicopters, and drones is another major concern.

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Here's how to short Archer Aviation when there's no chance of making money.

The fact that Archer Aviation is spending a lot of money is arguably the strongest argument against it. Last year, it lost £618 million. The board acknowledges that it anticipates losing as much as £200 million in the upcoming quarter alone. The business has enough cash on hand to cover these short-term losses, but analysts predict that the company will continue to experience sharp losses for the foreseeable future. Even if Archer's revenue soars, the stock will still be worth about thirty times the projected 2027 sales because its valuation is so high.

It appears that investors have also lost faith in Archer. The stock is on a downward trajectory, despite a brief rebound in the spring. It is trading significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages and has lost nearly two-thirds of its 52-week peak. For this reason, I would advise shorting it at the current price of £5.73 at 300 per £1. If it reached £8.73, which would give you a total loss of 900, I would cover the position.