ChatGPT turns three: what's next for the andlsquo;AI era'?

The stock market is being driven by ChatGPT and its manufacturer, OpenAI, three years after its launch ignited the AI era

But concerns are growing over whether OpenAI will be able to turn its AI dominance into profit.

The third anniversary of ChatGPT's public debut was yesterday, November 30, 2025. The app has since become practically synonymous with generative artificial intelligence (AI) and has sparked a surge in the stock market.

Those three years have seen AI stocks rocket to the top of the stock market agenda, and no publicly-listed company has embodied this rise more than Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). In that time, the chip design giant's revenue has increased tenfold, making it the first company in history to reach £4 trillion and, for a brief period, £5 trillion.

"ChatGPT has fundamentally shifted the investment landscape," Interactive Investor's head of investment Victoria Scholar stated. "Its birth and proliferation have fuelled investor excitement around how AI can enhance all corners of the economy.

"Public businesses that have embraced and used AI have received rewards, while those that haven't faced penalties. Companies that have positioned themselves at the heart of the AI revolution have benefitted with skyrocketing share prices," Scholar added.

OpenAI, the developer behind ChatGPT, is arguably the main driver underpinning this stock market revolution. While its shares are currently unavailable to buy directly for most retail investors, OpenAI still has the ability to shift the entire stock market through its announcements. In the third year since ChatGPT's public debut, this has become more evident than ever.

Nvidias shares gained 3.9 percent on 22 September following news of a deal that would see Nvidia invest up to £100 billion into OpenAI incrementally, in return for the ChatGPT-maker deploying up to 10GB of Nvidias hardware.

Oracles (NASDAQ:ORCL) stock gained 36 percent on 10 September following an announcement that OpenAI was planning to spend £300 billion on its computing infrastructure. But shares in Oracle fell by 30 percent in the month to 13 November as doubts emerged over the feasibility of these commitments.

Profits are a concern after three years of ChatGPT.

While OpenAI is arguably more influential than ever, questions over the long-term economics of its business, which ultimately hinges on ChatGPT, have been asked increasingly loudly during ChatGPTs third year.

Analysis from HSBC Global Investment Research indicates that OpenAI wont be profitable by 2030, eight years after ChatGPTs launch, despite assuming that its user base rises from 10 percent of the worlds adult population (excluding China) to 44 percent during that time.

The analysis suggests that OpenAIs cumulative free cash flow and other sources of income (such as cash injections from Nvidia) will fall £207 billion short of its costs, largely computing requirements, over the period.

These numbers assume that OpenAIs revenue will increase from around £12 billion in 2025 to £214 billion in 2030. For the first time, HSBC anticipates that OpenAIs revenue will surpass its yearly cloud computing expenses, which it projects will reach £207 billion in 2030 (up from £193 billion the previous year).

Fears of an AI bubble bursting are being sparked by these kinds of calculations. Even though Nvidia's profits have definitely increased since ChatGPT was introduced three years ago, if one of its largest clients is unable to maintain its spending, the future growth that many anticipate it will not materialize.

Is OpenAI going to go public?

While OpenAI is still a private company, there is increasing speculation that it could be set to list on public markets indeed, its need for cash to fund its infrastructure spending commitments could hurry this along.

Reuters reported on 29 October that OpenAI was lining up an IPO that could value the company as high as £1 trillion, citing three unnamed people familiar with the matter.

The report claimed that the IPO could take place as soon as the second half of 2026, and was expected to raise a minimum of £60 billion.

The timing and valuations are of course subject to change, but if the £1 trillion figure is realised it would represent a near-doubling of OpenAIs latest valuation. At a £500 billion valuation, the company raised £6.6 billion earlier in October.

The UK managing director of eToro, Dan Moczulski, disagrees that an IPO is OpenAI's obvious next move.

"Their focus is likely to be on building a more profitable and sustainable business model, which could include new ways to monetise the free versions of ChatGPT, such as advertising," he said. Long-term stability will be far more important than rushing into the public markets because their technology is now at the core of so many industries, including finance. The "

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