
According to Merryn Somerset Webb, nuclear power is about to enter a new heyday
This year, a lot is happening. The renaissance of nuclear power is one of the biggest game-changers that you may not have noticed. Until recently, the majority of net-zero absolutists believed renewable energy could fulfill their vision. If you invest enough in solar and wind, you will have a "clean" grid that provides affordable electricity to all locations within ten or two years. No hazardous nuclear power plants or filthy fossil fuels.
(Intermittency, distance, expense) It hasn't worked and it's becoming more and more obvious that it won't. That's a problem given that the demand for electricity is rapidly increasing due to factors like heat pumps, electric cars, andmost importantlyartificial intelligence (AI). By 2030, data center demand is predicted to double or even triple. The energy consumption of an AI query is ten times that of a traditional Google search. Currently, data centers consume 23% of all electricity in the United States. It is predicted to be close to 9% by 2030. Global power demand is predicted to increase by 34% over the next five years, which is three times faster than it has in the previous ten.
The good news is that nuclear is an excellent alternative. We have avoided it for the past few decades because we believe it to be dangerous. As it happens, it isn't. According to Dr. Tim Gregory, author of Going Nuclear: How the Atom Will Save the World, "radiophobia" is a legacy of the Three Mile Island (1979) and Chernobyl (1986) accidents. However, no one was killed at the largest nuclear accident in American history, Three Mile Island, and Gregory told The Telegraph that the number of fatalities at Chernobyl "probably falls in the region of a few hundred." Gregory says you should be more concerned about air pollution, which kills millions of people and can be eliminated by nuclear power, rather than radiation. However, nuclear's genius doesn't end with cleanliness. It's also dependable, low-emission, and possibly cost-effective (this is a decision for planners and regulators); it's also constant, which our grid needsask the Spanish. You can build modular units in factories and deploy them fairly quickly and affordably wherever energy is needed by implementing it in the form of small nuclear reactors (SMRs). All of that may sound good, and that's because almost everyone now seems to understand it.
The message is spreading around the world.
In order to quadruple the United States' nuclear capability by 2050, Donald Trump signed four executive orders in May. He wants new construction, retired plant restarts, and rapid reactor capacity upgrades. The US nuclear industry is currently over 80% dependent on imports, with an excessive amount coming from adversarial nations. He anticipates that US uranium supply chains will be rebuilt at the same time. Tech companies from the US are on board: Google, Microsoft, and Meta have all inked nuclear-power purchase agreements with utility companies. China is also a nuclear powerhouse. It has installed about half of the new capacity since 2010, is getting close to the US in terms of total capacity, and leads the world in obtaining reactor technology that is consistently becoming less expensive, not to mention installation speed. Europe is moving as quickly as possible away from its nuclear phase-outs.
Another indication of the change in international organizations is the Asian Development Bank's announcement this week that it is thinking of removing its ban on nuclear project funding. The World Bank has already taken this action. Nuclear is once again in vogue, even in the United Kingdom. Both new plants in the UK and a "new golden age of nuclear for Britain" are priorities for Energy Secretary Ed Miliband.
A few long-term concerns.
The pace of transformation is quickening. Approximately 10% of the world's electricity is produced by nuclear, a decrease from 17% in the mid-1980s, but there are still 441 nuclear plants operating worldwide, 65 more being built, and more than 400 more planned. The commitment made at the COP20 climate summit was that capacity should at least triple by 2050. You're probably wondering if there's enough uranium to go around. There is in the long run. Gregory claims that the known supplies of uranium and thorium (which may also be utilized in the future) and recyclable fuel could sustain humanity for 900 years, while the remaining uranium and thorium dissolved in the ocean could last us an additional 500,000 years. We'll have more than enough time. In the short term, however, it's a different story. Investment bank Jefferies claims that everything may appear to be going well right now. This year, it is anticipated that newly mined supply will fall just short of reactor requirements. That isn't an issue right now because secondary suppliessuch as recycling and inventory drawdownsfill the gap. These auxiliary supplies will soon run out, and the market will "face a structural reset by 2028."
Nick Lawson of the consulting firm Ocean Wall suggests that we consider it a new pricing phase. The legislative stage of the government is over. But then there is "buyer fear" when everyone knows that uranium is needed, that there isn't enough, and that nobody else is concerned about price (uranium is a very small portion of the cost of producing nuclear energy). Although it takes time to build plants, this is a long-term concern. However, there is a reason why prices increased by 5 to 5% in May and uranium miners by even more.
The uranium market can be entered in a number of ways. The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (Toronto: U) is located in Canada. U), which contains precisely what it states. You can look at two trusts in the UK: Geiger Counter (LSE: GCL) and Yellowcake (Aim: YCA). Geiger Counter makes investments in uranium exploration, development, and production firms, while Yellowcake owns physical uranium oxide concentrate.
Bloomberg.com's Merryn Talks Money podcast is hosted by Merryn.
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